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The Weekly Update

Week of July 18th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

A record-high inflation report, the prospects of a more aggressive Fed, and growing recession fears sent stocks lower – though losses were pared by a Friday rally.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.16%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 0.93%. The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 1.57% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 3.49%.

Stocks Slide
As the week opened, recession fears intensified with reports of renewed Covid-related lockdowns in China. Also, the U.S. dollar continued to climb, reflecting global economic weakness.

June’s consumer price index report showed price increases accelerating. Year-over-Year prices jumped 9.1%, the fastest pace in over 40 years. Speculation grew that the Federal Reserve might contemplate a 100-basis point increase in short-term rates later this month, rather than the 75-basis point hike it earlier signaled. The market rebounded …

The Weekly Update

Week of July 11th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

In a holiday-shortened trading week, stocks rallied despite mixed economic data and vacillating energy prices and bond yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.77%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 1.94%. The Nasdaq Composite index picked up 4.56% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged 0.46% higher.

Stocks Move Higher
In advance of Friday’s much-anticipated employment report, stocks enjoyed successive daily gains despite ongoing concerns about a recession. Recession fears were supported by an inversion in the yield curve and updated second-quarter Gross Domestic Product projections indicating the economy is ready to contract.

Technology shares were the week’s big winners as investors appear to have turned to companies with earnings growth potential during a weakening economic environment. Stocks bounced along the flatline following the strong jobs report on Friday to close out …

The Weekly Update

Week of July 5th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

After the S&P 500 posted its worst first half of the year since 1970, U.S. stock futures are starting the new month and new quarter under pressure.

All three major U.S. stock indexes finished the month and the second quarter in negative territory last week. For the month, the S&P 500 fell 8.4%, the Nasdaq declined 8.7%, and the Dow lost 6.7%.

It was the largest first-half percentage drop ever for the Nasdaq, while the Dow plunged the most since 1962. For the first half of 2022, the S&P 500 fell 20.6%, the Nasdaq lost 29.5%, and the Dow declined 15.3%. All three indexes posted their second straight quarterly declines. The last time that happened was in 2015 for the S&P 500 and the Dow, and 2016 for the Nasdaq. For the quarter, the S&P 500 declined 16.4%, the …

The Weekly Update

Week of June 27th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Prospects of cooling inflation powered a rally in stock prices last week despite growing recession concerns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.39%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 climbed 6.45%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 7.49% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged 0.78% higher.

Stocks Bounce
Declining energy and food prices and falling bond yields signaled a potentially improving inflation outlook, buoying investor sentiment. The rally in stocks was most powerful on the first and final trading days of a holiday-shortened week. Stocks turned a bit choppy mid-week as investors digested Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Senate appearance but resumed their momentum on Thursday and rallied Friday as rate-hike expectations eased.

Though the weekly gain was a welcome respite from the market’s downward trend, declining bond yields and falling food and energy prices …

The Weekly Update

Week of June 21st, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks moved lower last week as recession fears deepened following a Fed hike in interest rates and weak economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.79%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 5.79%. The Nasdaq Composite index slid 4.78% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slumped 4.51%.

Stocks Tumble
Stocks were under pressure all week due to inflation worries, higher yields, and rising recession concerns. In advance of the much-awaited mid-week meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), bond yields jumped, and stocks retreated on speculation that the Fed might raise rates by 75 basis points. When the Fed announced a 75-basis point hike on Wednesday, stocks rebounded strongly.

The enthusiasm was short-lived. Stocks resumed their slide on Thursday as global central banks followed with their own rate hikes. Recession fears …

The Weekly Update

Week of June 13th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

A higher-than-expected inflation report triggered a sell-off on Friday, leaving stocks in the red for the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.58%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 5.05%. The Nasdaq Composite index slid 5.60% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, declined 1.81%.

Inflation Upends Stocks
Stocks gyrated between gains and losses last week until sliding lower on Friday’s hot inflation report, which heightened worries over a more aggressive Fed and a further economic slowdown. Stocks moved higher to begin the week, despite rising bond yields, a profit warning from a major retailer, and Senate testimony by Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen, who said that inflation was likely to remain elevated.

Stocks turned lower later in the week on renewed concerns of an economic slowdown, sparked by a downward revision in …

The Weekly Update

Week of June 6th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

In a holiday-shortened week of volatile trading, stocks surrendered some of the previous week’s strong gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.94%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 declined 1.20%. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 0.98% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slipped 0.17%.

An Uncertain Market
Stocks experienced wild swings last week, in part, due to ongoing uncertainty over economic health and the path of inflation. Investors seemed conflicted when interpreting the data, in some instances viewing economic strength as a negative since it may mean more aggressive rate hikes from the Fed.

Illustrative of how this uncertainty has played out, stocks surged higher on Thursday despite comments from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard indicating it’s unlikely that the Fed will pause on rate hikes. Then on Friday, stocks dropped as a …

The Weekly Update

Week of May 31st, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks posted solid gains for the week, buoyed by the release of Fed meeting minutes and upbeat earnings from mid-size and discount retailers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 6.24%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 6.58%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 6.84% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 2.09%.

A Good Week
The stock market staged a broad rally last week, ignited by the release of minutes from the May’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The meeting notes eased concerns that the Fed might pursue a more aggressive monetary tightening stance than the Street had anticipated.

Investor sentiment rose owing to solid earnings and encouraging guidance from several mid-size and discount retailers, which eased concerns about the health of the American consumer. A smaller rise in the personal consumption expenditures …

The Weekly Update

Week of May 23rd, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Recession fears grew last week following weak earnings reports from major retailers, sending stocks lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.90%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 3.05%. The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 3.82% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.84%.

Trending Lower
Stock prices remained in a downtrend, capped by a sell-off on Wednesday following a succession of disappointing earnings reports from several major retailers. Despite solid April retail sales and industrial production data, weak economic numbers from China and shrinking profit margins at U.S. retailers fanned recession fears throughout the week.

Rising yields, which have been an overhang to the markets in recent weeks, turned lower as investors appeared to move cash to bonds from stocks. But lower yields did not help stock prices, which closed out the week …

The Weekly Update

Week of May 16th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

In a volatile trading week, stocks extended their losses as economic growth and inflation concerns soured investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.14%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 2.41%. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 2.80% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slumped 3.21%.

A Turbulent Week
Inflation moved to center stage last week with the release of April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index. Both numbers came near their 40-year highs but were lower than March’s year-over-year numbers. The results heightened investor anxiety about future Fed monetary tightening and its impact on economic growth.

In recent weeks, technology stocks have borne the brunt of the downdraft as investors lightened up on risk exposures, with some of the mega-cap tech names getting swept up in the selling pressure. …